The intensifying tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran could trigger far reaching economic and socio political consequences for Nigeria and the wider African continent, scholars have warned.
A Professor of History and International Studies at Lagos State University, Abolade Adeniji, raised the concern during a lecture that examined the unfolding crisis and its implications for Africa.
The lecture, hosted by the Centre for General Nigerian Studies, drew attention to the growing global uncertainty and the need for African countries to respond with strategic clarity.
Adeniji argued that prevailing global perceptions of Iran are often shaped by Western narratives, which he said tend to overlook the country’s complex social and religious diversity.
He traced Iran’s historical roots to ancient Persia, noting its longstanding contributions to civilisation before the rise of Western scientific and technological dominance.
According to him, the current hostility between Iran and the United States can be traced to the Iranian Revolution, which upended Iran’s political structure and foreign alliances.
The revolution led to the fall of Shah Reza Pahlavi and the emergence of a theocratic government under Ayatollah Khomeini, fundamentally reshaping Iran’s relationship with Western powers.
Adeniji observed that the rupture deepened following the Iran hostage crisis, an episode that entrenched decades of mistrust and diplomatic hostility.
He added that Iran’s backing of regional groups has further strained relations with the United States and its allies, who view such actions through the prism of security threats.
On recent developments, the scholar noted that economic sanctions imposed by the United States have weakened Iran’s economy, triggering internal pressures and declining living standards.
He also pointed to the reversal of diplomatic gains recorded during the administration of Barack Obama by his successor Donald Trump, which he said exacerbated tensions.
Adeniji expressed concern that Africa has failed to articulate a unified response to the crisis, with countries divided along ideological and strategic lines.
He warned that such disunity weakens the continent’s ability to influence global outcomes and protect its economic interests.
For Nigeria, he identified a mix of opportunities and risks, noting that rising crude oil prices could boost government revenue while simultaneously driving inflation and worsening the cost of living.
He cautioned that the crisis could also inflame religious sensitivities within Nigeria, urging political actors to avoid exploiting such divisions.
The professor called for strengthened military preparedness and transparent management of any windfall from higher oil prices, stressing the need to channel gains into public welfare.
He urged policymakers to adopt proactive strategies that would shield citizens from economic shocks and prevent social instability.
Another speaker, Prof. Ibrahim Bakare, painted a stark picture of the global economic fallout, citing massive disruptions across energy and supply chains.
He disclosed that the conflict has resulted in billions of dollars in losses in oil production, with crude prices surging above 100 dollars per barrel.
Bakare warned that the disruption of key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz has significantly reduced global oil and fertiliser supply, intensifying inflation and threatening food security.
He added that the crisis has inflicted heavy human and economic costs, with thousands of deaths and millions at risk of slipping into poverty.
According to him, while the United States faces mounting defence expenditure, Israel has suffered infrastructure damage, and Iran continues to grapple with severe economic contraction.
Turning to Africa, Bakare said the ripple effects are already evident in rising inflation, weakening currencies and escalating import costs across the continent.
He noted that disruptions in global shipping routes, including the Red Sea corridor, have increased freight costs, impacting agriculture, manufacturing and trade.
He cited cases of food shortages and energy constraints in several African countries, warning that some have begun implementing rationing measures.
On Nigeria, he reiterated that while higher oil prices offer revenue gains, past experience shows that such windfalls are often poorly managed.
He referenced historical precedents, including gains recorded during the Yom Kippur War and the Iran Iraq War, which failed to translate into sustainable development.
Bakare stressed that the current crisis could strain Nigeria’s manufacturing, transport, agriculture and health sectors due to rising costs of energy and imports.
He urged authorities to invest in infrastructure and build economic resilience to mitigate long term vulnerabilities.
Earlier, the Director of the Centre for General Nigerian Studies, Prof. M.O.B Mohammed, underscored the importance of interrogating global conflicts and their local implications.
He said the interconnected nature of the modern world means distant crises inevitably shape domestic realities, particularly for economies dependent on global systems.
Mohammed described the ongoing tensions as a major geopolitical flashpoint with significant consequences for global stability, energy markets and international diplomacy.
He reaffirmed the centre’s commitment to fostering informed debate and multidisciplinary analysis of pressing global issues.
The event, he noted, provided a platform for scholars to interrogate the crisis from historical, geopolitical and economic perspectives, enriching public understanding.
He also commended the Vice Chancellor of Lagos State University, Prof. Ibiyemi Olatunji Bello, for sustaining academic excellence and promoting intellectual engagement.
As the conflict continues to unfold, participants agreed that caution, strategic planning and global cooperation remain essential to preventing further escalation and safeguarding economic stability.